[Meta thread] Iron's PokeRole Adventure: The Skull Ruins

[Dragonstrike]

@Lord Windos

Give me a sec.  Thought of some new things related to Tri Attack that I could calculate...

[PhantomUnderYourDesk]

Yep! It's a place for tough trainers. There are non-Borealis entrances to, but even Nathan has never been inside them, since a Ralts isn't enough to survive in there and it's no place for a kid.

*takes one glance over to Shiva* 'Tough Trainer'? Nope. Definitely not on the outside.
But maybe by then, she'll be 'tough' on the inside, completely fooling foes by her fragile/nerd/cute appearance before she strikes with all the tricks she and her Pokemon have learned by then. Awwww...~

[Dragonstrike]

Okay, so...

...here's my original post on some of the odds of Tri Attack and procing chance dice effects.

Now, what do I wish to add?

Well, first of all...

- I want to clarify that all of the following calculations are for at least one effect of the 3 procing.  It's the easiest math to do (I don't quite follow the correct reasoning for the math, but the end result is the same since the dice all have independent results).  All of this math also applies to Delta Porygon's Tank Attack, obviously.

Previously, if you don't want to read the whole thing, I calculated base Tri Attack (6 chance dice total between 3 effects) as having a 67% chance of inflicting something.  Serene Grace boosted Tri Attack (12 chance dice) has an 89% chance of inflicting something.  Approximately.

But then I thought of something else...move and ability effects stack, right?

So let's throw in the buff from Water Pledge too.

Now you have 6 chance dice per effect for a total of 18 (each individual effect has a 67% chance of procing by itself now...yeesh...).  And the odds of THAT procing something...

...

96%

And just for kicks, if it were applied to Poison Fang along with Serene Grace to give it 9 D6...80%.

So, to summarize again:

1: 17%
2: 31%
3: 42%
4: 51% (Base Elemental Fangs)
5: 60%
6: 67% (Base Tri Attack)
7: 72%
8: 77%
9: 80%
10 and 11: No move in pokerole's base rules can have this amount of chance dice
12: 86% (Serene Grace Tri Attack & Serene Grace, Water Pledge Elemental Fangs)
13-17: Same deal as 10 and 11
18: 96% (Serene Grace, Water Pledge Tri Attack)

Exponential curves are fun.  Here's a graph of 1-(5/6)^x if you want a visual, btw:

Spoiler

   

[PhantomUnderYourDesk]

o.o; You're definitely taking things too accounting for my taste, like a Steel Type.

[Dragonstrike]

BTW, I'm waiting on a PM from Nylon in response to something I sent him before I get to what Nathan's doing in the lobby, so don't feel like you have to rush things to much!

[Dragonstrike]

o.o; You're definitely taking things too accounting for my taste, like a Steel Type.

Could still go deeper if I wished.  Could try calculating the odds of exactly one, two, or all three of the effects procing (this last one's easy, but the first two are a bit more difficult).

You know what they say, though: Ask and ye shall receive!

Of course, you can also apply gambler's fallacy to all of this, since all the rolls are independent of each other...

[Spiritmon]

Talking about genius of math. You would future in the adminstration. It use very much math.

[PhantomUnderYourDesk]

That's not what I meant, but I don't wish to elaborate this further... Moving on then, I'll just stick with my fairies.

[Iron]

Odds of any Tri-Attack effect procing when you're counting on them to: 0%.

[Lord Windos]

Odds of any Tri-Attack effect procing when you're counting on them to: 0%.

AKA: The Dice screw you over, or the DM rightfully fudges results so that you don't end up Burning, Paralzying, AND Freezing the target all in one go. Which is completely understand, as an 86 - 96% chance to proc at least one Status is.....powerful.

Now I'm wondering how much it would cost Raphael to get Tri Attack as a Surprise Move.....